Trouble Brewing in the Economy and Markets…


Trouble Brewing in the Economy and Markets… with David Moadel welcome to looking at the markets with
David Modell well we had a correction in the S&P 500 in February and the market
has been the stock market has been going either sideways or upwards
ever since we’re hovering near all-time highs
is this justifiable is it sustainable let’s take a look at the economy see how
we’re doing well right now in the United States we have a debt to GDP ratio of
over a hundred percent this is trading economics calm I want to give them
credit and about ten years ago the debt to GDP ratio was more reasonable and now
and this has been going on for a little while and it’s just getting worse over
time we now the United States we now owe more
than we produce that’s not good and it does not justify a stock market hovering
near all-time highs how about the future this is the present and the past how
about the future well according to C ATO Cato org
and according to this chart the US is now the only advanced country projected
to see a rising debt to GDP ratio in the coming five years so we saw that it’s
been over a hundred percent for a while now and according to these projections
look at all the other countries in the world and look at the United States it’s
just going to get worse all the way through 2023
according to Cato org and their research what else am I seeing in the economy
well the US inflation rate over time is just getting higher and higher in fact
it’s it has jumped quite a bit in the past quarters according to trading
economics calm and their research and that’s not good for the consumer because
consumers cannot afford to make as many purchases and the consumer cannot
contribute to the economy which is not good for the economy
and also rising inflation also causes the Federal Reserve
generally speaking causes the Fed to raise interest rates in order to keep up
with inflation they have to keep bond yields Treasury yields up with inflation
otherwise people are not going to buy Treasuries from the United States
government and so when we have a sustained increase or jump in the
inflation rate that tends to cause the Fed to raise Treasury yields bond yields
and the US stock stock market does not like that it gets nervous it gets scared
if and when the Fed raises interest rates which I project it will do it must
do it in order to keep up with inflation and so I see that happening in the near
future and here’s another thing we should look at this is fin vis it is a
stock screener that I like and usually when I go to the descriptive tab and I
tide enter in mega caps you know those large companies those large large extra
large cap companies the big ones the famous ones the apples and Amazon’s of
the world the Dow stocks are generally in the in the mega cap category and then
I go to technicals and I’m looking for let’s say I’m looking for mega caps that
are 50 percent or more below their 52 week high so in the bottom half compared
to their 52 week I results none no mega caps fit that description all right I’ll
be a little bit I’ll be a little more lenient a little more relaxed let’s go
for 40% below their one-year 52 week high nothing all right let’s be a little
more lenient how about 30% or more I’m getting a little desperate here nope
there are no bargains in the stock market as we can see at least among the
really famous companies how about 20% or more are below the 52-week i won we got
facebook here i’ve had to go all the way up to 20% or more below the all-time
high so there’s one company 20% or more below its all-time high among mega caps
how about 10% or more let’s see can we at least get a few 14 all right yeah we
got Alibaba Chevron Facebook again and tell a few more only 14 mega cap
companies are 10% or more below their 52-week high that means that the big
companies are all trading near almost all trading near their all-time high I
should be able to get some in the 30s 40s and 50s below their all-time high
there should be some bargains out there there are none they’re all trading near
their 52-week highs or at least the vast majority of them are
I shouldn’t have to work this hard to find a bargain in the markets if you’re
thinking about going long the S&P 500 the Dow the Nasdaq the Russell anything
like that I would say in my opinion you have to make your own decisions I’d say
this is not a time to do it not a time to get started if you’ve been in for a
long time and you want to stay there actually I don’t even recommend that
it’s a great time to start in my opinion start taking a little bit off the table
scaling out a little bit consider some alternative investments and if you’d
like more information about that you can email me at any time I can help you with
your portfolio my name is David Modell my email address is David Modell at
gmail.com do I see trouble ahead well I’m just gonna let the facts speak for
themselves because I’m only presenting the facts here I inform and it’s up to
you to make your decisions well I’ll tell you what if you like this video
please give it a thumbs up on YouTube and
comments tell me what do you think do you think the economy in the United
States justifies these near all-time highs in the stock market should I have
to work this hard to find bargains is that normal
what do you think tell me in the comments below this video and please
subscribe to my youtube channel if you didn’t do that already hit that Bell on
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videos thank you so much I appreciate it I’ll talk to you again soon

9 thoughts on “Trouble Brewing in the Economy and Markets…

  1. So, basically, the U.S. is like a person living lavishly off his 10 credit cards, racking thousands and thousands of credit card bills. But hey, he owns the newest car, newest phone, and he works for HIMSELF!

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